Lula Claims Fourth Term in Brazil After Narrow Victory Over Flávio Bolsonaro

Fireworks exploded over São Paulo just after midnight UK time as Brazil’s 159 million voters selected their next leader.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth nonconsecutive term as president, defeating far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro by a margin of about 4.3 million votes. Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, secured 51.79% of the total count against 48.21% for his rival. The result ended a tense campaign that saw the 45-year-old senator lead the first-round vote earlier in October with 56.1 million ballots to Lula’s 53.8 million.

The turnaround broke a national pattern; since democracy returned to Brazil in 1985, no first-round runner-up had successfully won the second ballot. Lula, a veteran leftist who rose from rural poverty to become the country’s first elected working-class leader, described the outcome as a defeat for denialism. He has served as the anchor for a democratic resurgence in the region, a period marked by a more than 70% reduction in Amazon deforestation and a crackdown on illegal mining in Indigenous territories.

Flávio Bolsonaro, who has refused to concede the loss, cited a decision to extend voting hours by two hours as a reason for his challenge. The senator’s campaign had relied on social media dominance and support from evangelical leaders and pro-gun voters. However, a series of scandals, including a Piauí magazine report alleging he attended a boat party with vaccine lobbyists during the 2020 pandemic, eroded his standing. Meanwhile, Lula’s team mobilized millions through a WhatsApp channel known as “Lula’s army,” and the president recently began posting to Instagram and TikTok, surpassing his rival in digital reach.

The election also reflected global dynamics involving the United States. President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports last year, calling the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio’s father and a 27-year prison sentence recipient for plotting a coup, a witch hunt. Lula positioned himself as a defender against what he called colonial designs, maintaining a multilateral foreign policy and rejecting invitations to join a Latin American coalition for military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon.

In Roraima, the northern state where Bolsonaro performed best, Indigenous leaders expressed relief. The previous administration facilitated an illegal gold rush that ravaged the Yanomami reserve, a problem Lula’s government addressed by expelling miners. However, Lula will now work with a newly elected congress featuring a record number of right-wing politicians who are often hostile to environmental and Indigenous rights.

Tom Phillips, the Guardian’s Latin America correspondent, noted that while Bolsonaro’s refusal to accept the result creates immediate tension, world leaders are already recognizing Lula’s win. Phillips suggested the senator may head to the United States in coming days to avoid ongoing criminal investigations, viewing the loss as a sign that the Bolsonaro name has become toxic for a slight majority of Brazilians.

Lula’s victory arrives alongside other high-stakes elections this week, including polls in Israel on Tuesday and in the United States next week. The outcome in Brazil is expected to bolster pro-democracy campaigners internationally as leaders across Latin America congratulate the president this morning.