70,000 Returnees Could Shift Knesset Math

An estimated 70,000 Israelis residing abroad have returned to the country or are scheduled to arrive before Tuesday's Knesset elections. If the final tally between political blocs is tight, these ballots could determine which side secures a majority. Officials note that no precise census exists for this group, so the figure remains a projection rather than a confirmed count.

The potential impact of these voters depends on the cost of a parliamentary seat. In the 2022 election, a party needed roughly 36,000 votes to claim one seat. With population growth and higher turnout expected this year, analysts project the threshold will rise to between 38,000 and 39,000 votes. Even if 60 percent of the returnees voted for the change bloc, that would add at most one and a half seats to their total.

Hotel data reflects the influx of citizens combining their votes with short trips. Africa Israel Hotels reported a 23 percent increase in occupancy during election week compared to October last year. Alex Eliyahu, the chain's marketing director, stated that more Israelis are pairing "exercising their democratic right with a short vacation." Fattal Hotels also saw higher booking rates, particularly in central Israel.

Maya Shalev, vice president of marketing and sales at Fattal Hotels, attributed the rise to the elections. The chain is offering discounts of up to 30 percent, plus an additional 10 percent for loyalty club members, from October 25 to 29. She noted that bookings from abroad for these dates likely indicate citizens arriving specifically to cast ballots.

Travelers shared their motivations at a rally in Tel Aviv on Saturday night. Judy, who has lived in the US for 50 years, flew in from Miami and plans to return in early November. She described herself as distinct from many Israelis in Miami and Los Angeles who tend to support the Right. Ofer, arriving from New York, said his family flew in solely to vote and will depart the day after the election.

Nurit, from the South Sharon area, attended the event with her son-in-law and 18-year-old grandson, who arrived from Canada to vote for the first time. Zehava, who also flew in from New York, stated she plans to vote for Likud and arranged her visit in advance. Some travelers faced disruptions after flydubai canceled flights following an attempted terrorist attack, which increased costs for routes to the Far East.