Student List leaders prioritize domestic repairs over foreign policy shifts

Serbia has moved past fourteen years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party.

The opposition Student List secured a historic victory in Sunday's election, ending the long political dominance of the former regime.

As Belgrade prepares for a turbulent transition and the presidential elections scheduled for December, international observers are asking if Vucic's departure will trigger an immediate change in direction.

Analysts caution that internal consolidation will take priority, meaning any transformation in foreign policy will be gradual rather than sudden.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that a rapid reset in regional relations is unlikely.

Popov told Al Jazeera that questions about neighboring countries will not be on the agenda immediately.

The new authorities must first tackle domestic problems, including a system that has captured democratic institutions, the judiciary, the prosecution service, police, and media sector.

Popov described the priority as tidying up at home before solving problems with neighbors, noting that the outgoing regime actively undermined regional ties.

Relations with Croatia remain marked by sharp words, with Vucic recently accusing Zagreb of organizing a color revolution during mass protests.

Popov identified Croatia as the thorniest case, citing clashes between the SNS and Croatia's ruling Croatian Democratic Union.

He noted that behind public hostility, there was a quiet convergence on Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Belgrade backing Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and Zagreb favoring a third entity.

Popov expressed hope that a new government led by experts would work to stabilize the region and revive Serbia's hopes of joining the European Union, which requires good neighborly relations to be repaired first. Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King's College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least under the forthcoming governmental changes. Many international and domestic structures shaping Serbian foreign policy will remain in place, he said, adding that Moscow viewed Vucic as the devil they knew. Russian influence will take a blow with the end of uncritical glorification in state-controlled media and downgraded intelligence cooperation, but the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight. Serbian interests can continue to be served by ties with Russia, including preferential gas prices and the unresolved Kosovo dispute. Vuksanovic stated that the new Serbian government will not see value in joining EU sanctions or adopting a hawkish stance toward Moscow. Regarding Ukraine, Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. A question mark remains over ammunition deliveries, as the opposition viewed Vucic's weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance for his domestic rule. Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, noted that while ties with Israel will not be severed, recent controversial agreements will face scrutiny. The new government will re-examine newly concluded contracts, primarily those concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia. Jaksic added that Netanyahu's government has lost another authoritarian, nationalist ally in Europe after Viktor Orban's removal in Hungary earlier this year. He suggested that the policy of sitting on multiple chairs, which brought Serbia more harm than good, will certainly be re-evaluated. It is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU, but the international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.